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Pré-Publication, Document De Travail Année : 2019

Black Box Identification of Earth's Climate System

Résumé

Climate models allow simulating and evaluating the responses of Earth's climate to imbalance factors (known as forcing factors): human, volcanic and solar activities. The purpose of this paper is to assess the respective contributions of these factors only from observations, modern or paleoclimatic, without resorting to any a priori quantification of energy flows generated by forcing factors, nor of the coefficients of sensitivity of global temperatures to these energy fluxes. For this purpose, an energy balance model is calibrated from classical identification techniques (in the sense of systems theory). It is a black box approach, i.e. based exclusively on observations. Despite the diversity and relative inaccuracy of the models obtained, the simulated contributions of the forcing factors are found to be incompatible with the generally accepted levels. The sensitivity to solar activity appears to be underestimated in a ratio up to 6 or 15; volcanic activity is overestimated at least in a ratio of two. More importantly, the contribution of human activity to recent warming could be negligible compared to that of the internal climate variability. These results are based on objective probabilities, directly derived from observations, which in science prevail over any theoretical speculation. Although they must obviously be received with caution, they cannot be ignored, and we conclude by giving some explanations to the deviations from the prevailing consensus.
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Dates et versions

hal-02178554 , version 1 (10-07-2019)

Identifiants

  • HAL Id : hal-02178554 , version 1

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Philippe de Larminat. Black Box Identification of Earth's Climate System. 2019. ⟨hal-02178554⟩
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