Regional impacts of the global carbon stakes: Long term prospective with the TIMES integrated assessment model (TIAM-FR)

Sandrine Selosse (1) , Edi Assoumou (1) , Nadia Maïzi (1)

1 CMA - Centre de Mathématiques Appliquées

The aim of this study is to discuss the Copenhagen commitments, using the modelling tool TIAM-FR, and to propose some keys to understanding long-term climate policy. More precisely, we investigate different coordination schemes for regions that have pledged to reach CO2 mitigation targets during the period 2005-2050. Using regional carbon constraint scenarios, we show what these possible futures represent for different regions committed to the Copenhagen Agreement. Our analysis mainly focuses on the effects of these environmental constraints on several indicators such as, global and regional CO2 emissions, the cost of the climate policy, the carbon marginal costs, the progress of primary energy consumption and the energy mix. This paper compares global efforts on CO2 mitigation with the marginal cost of carbon for a variety of climate policies and focuses on the evolution of the energy mix. Lastly, it discusses the plausibility of developing CO2 storage technologies to satisfy the carbon constraints.

Mots clés: Global energy system; CO2 mitigation targets; ETSAP/TIAM-FR; Long-term modeling; International agreements; Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)

Domaines: Planification énergétique; Prospective long-terme

Sandrine Selosse, Edi Assoumou, Nadia Maïzi. Regional impacts of the global carbon stakes: Long term prospective with the TIMES integrated assessment model (TIAM-FR). 3rd IAEE Rio 2010 International Conference "The Future of Energy: Global Challenges, Diverse Solutions", Jun 2010, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. 16 p. ⟨hal-00508608⟩