A Protocol for Standardazing the performance evaluation of short term wind power prediction models

Henrik Madsen (1) , Pierre Pinson (2) , Georges Kariniotakis (2) , Henrik Aa. Nielsen (1) , Torben Skov Nielsen (3)

1 Risø DTU - Risø National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy
2 CEP - Centre Énergétique et Procédés
3 DTU - Department of Informatics and Mathematical Modeling [Lyngby]

Short-term wind power prediction is a primary requirement for efficient large-scale integration of wind generation in power systems and electricity markets. The choice of an appropriate prediction model among the numerous available models is not trivial, and has to be based on an objective evaluation of model performance.This paper proposes a standardized protocol for the evaluation of short-term wind-power prediction systems. A number of reference prediction models are also described, and their use for performance comparison is analysed. The use of the protocol is demonstrated, using results from both on-shore and offshore wind farms. The work was developed in the frame of the Anemos project (EU R&D project) where the protocol has been used to evaluate more than 10 prediction systems.

Mots clés: wind power forecasting; prediction error; performance evaluation; evaluation protocol

Domaines: Sciences de l'ingénieur [physics]; Energie électrique

Henrik Madsen, Pierre Pinson, Georges Kariniotakis, Henrik Aa. Nielsen, Torben Skov Nielsen. A Protocol for Standardazing the performance evaluation of short term wind power prediction models. Wind Engineering, 2005, 29 (6), p. 475-489. ⟨10.1260/030952405776234599⟩. ⟨hal-00527248⟩