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The Anemos Project : Next Generation forecasting of Wind power

Georges Kariniotakis 1 Didier Mayer 1 Heinemann Detlev 2 Jens Tambke 2 Julio Usaola 3 Ignacio Marti 4 Henrik Madsen 5 Torben Skov Nielsen 5 Christine Lac 6 H.P. Waldl 7 Félix Dierich 7 Jim Halliday 8 Richard Brownsword 8 Gregor Giebel 9 Jake Badger 9 Jacques Moussafir 10 George Kallos 11 Petroula Louka 11 Thierry Jouhanique 12 Manuel Calleja 13 John Toefting 14 M. Ryan 15 M. Carrington 15 John Indorf 16 Antiopi Gigantidou 17 G. Gonzales 18 E. Barosso 18 C. Barquero 19 P. Seguardo 19 Ignacio Cruz 20 Ana Maria Palomares 20 Nikos D. Hatziargyriou 21
1 CEP - Centre Énergétique et Procédés
2 University of Oldenburg
3 UC3M - Universidad Carlos III de Madrid [Madrid]
4 CENER - Centro Nacional de Energías Renovables - Fundación CENER-CIEMAT
5 DTU - Technical University of Denmark [Lyngby]
6 Météofrance
7 overspeed GmBh&CoKG
8 RAL - CCLRC Rutherford Appleton Laboratory
9 Risø National Laboratory
10 ARIA Technologies
11 IASA - Institute of Accelerating Systems and Applications [Athens]
12 EDF R&D - EDF R&D
13 EHN
14 ELSAM
15 ESB National Grid - Power System Operations
16 EWE AG - Energieversorgung Weser-Ems AG
17 PPC - Public Power Corporation - Grèce
18 REE - Red Eléctrica de España
19 IDAE - Spain
20 CIEMAT - Centro de Investigaciones Energéticas Medioambientales y Tecnológicas [Madrid]
21 ICCS - Institute of Communication and Computer Systems, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering
Abstract : This paper presents the objectives and the research work carried out in the frame of the ANEMOS project on short-term wind power forecasting. The aim of the project is to develop accurate models that substantially outperform current state-of-the-art methods, for onshore and offshore wind power forecasting, exploiting both statistical and physical modeling approaches. The project focus on prediction horizons up to 48 hours ahead and investigates predictability of wind for higher horizons up to 7 days ahead useful i.e. for maintenance scheduling. Emphasis is given on the integration of high-resolution meteorological forecasts. For the offshore case, marine meteorology is considered as well as information by satellite-radar images. Specific modules are also developed for on-line uncertainty and prediction risk estimation. An integrated software platform, 'ANEMOS', is developed to host the various models. This system will be installed by several end-users for on-line operation at onshore and offshore wind farms for prediction at a local, regional and national scale. The applications include different terrain types and wind climates, on- and offshore cases, and interconnected or island grids. The on-line operation by the utilities will allow validation of the models and an analysis of the value of wind prediction for a competitive integration of wind energy in the developing liberalized electricity markets.
Keywords : forecasting renewable energy wind energy energy meteorology Wind power short-term forecasting numerical w eather predictions on-line software
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Georges Kariniotakis, Didier Mayer, Heinemann Detlev, Jens Tambke, Julio Usaola, et al.. The Anemos Project : Next Generation forecasting of Wind power. International technical Conference DEWEK 2004, 7th German Wind Energy Conference, Oct 2004, Wilhelmshaven, Germany. pp.DEWEK 2004. ⟨hal-00529251⟩

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