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Uncertainty and Prediction Risk Assessment of short-term wind power forecasts

Abstract : The paper introduces a new methodology for assessing on-line the prediction risk of short-term wind power forecasts. The first part of this methodology consists in computing confidence intervals with a confidence level defined by the end-user. Focus is given in this paper to the second part of this methodology, which consists in a quantification of the meteorological risk in order to give signals to the operator on the prediction risk-i.e. the probabilities for the occurrence of high prediction errors depending on the weather stability. For this purpose, two indices, named MRI and NPRI, are defined reflecting respectively the spread of the available Numerical Weather Predictions and of the wind power ensemble predictions generated from meteorological poor man's ensembles. A relation between these indices and the level of prediction error is shown. Evaluation results of this methodology over a three-year period on the case study of a Danish wind farm and over a one-year period on the case study of an Irish farm are given. The proposed methodology has an operational nature and can be applied to all kinds of wind power forecasting models.
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Pierre Pinson, Georges Kariniotakis. Uncertainty and Prediction Risk Assessment of short-term wind power forecasts. The science of making Torque from Wind, Apr 2004, Delft, Netherlands. pp.CD ROM. ⟨hal-00529594⟩

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