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Communication dans un congrès
Wind Power forecasting using fuzzy neural networks enhanced with on-line prediction risk assessment
Abstract : The paper presents an advanced wind forecasting system that uses on-line SCAnA measurements, as well as numerical weather predictions (NWP) as input, to predict the power production of wind park8 48 hours ahead. The prediction system integrates models based on adaptive fuzzy-neural networks configured either for short-term (1-10 hours) or longterm (1-48 hours) forecasting. The paper presents detailed oneyear evaluation results ofthe models on the case study oflreland, where the output of several wind farms is predicted using HIRLAM meteorological forecasts as input A method for the online estimation of confidence intervals of the forecasts is developed together with an appropriate index for assessing online the risk due to the inaccuracy of the numerical weather predictions.
Littérature citée [18 références]
https://hal-mines-paristech.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00530561
Contributeur : Magalie Prudon <>
Soumis le : vendredi 29 octobre 2010 - 11:48:53
Dernière modification le : mercredi 14 octobre 2020 - 04:02:44
Archivage à long terme le : : dimanche 30 janvier 2011 - 02:50:56
Contributeur : Magalie Prudon <>
Soumis le : vendredi 29 octobre 2010 - 11:48:53
Dernière modification le : mercredi 14 octobre 2020 - 04:02:44
Archivage à long terme le : : dimanche 30 janvier 2011 - 02:50:56
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fiche_00530561.pdf
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