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A note on Hubbert's hypotheses and techniques

Abstract : Many have attempted to forecast the date of the production peak and the volume of the ultimate reserves of a mineral commodity, using techniques derived from Hubbert's thesis. This note aims at exploring the scientific foundations and therefore the scope of validity of these forecasting techniques. Looking at the basic assumptions of Hubbert's thesis, it concludes that these techniques should not be used to forecast neither the peak (or plateau) of the annual production rate, nor the ultimate reserves of any mineral, unless given exceptional conditions.
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Submitted on : Wednesday, April 27, 2011 - 3:46:41 PM
Last modification on : Wednesday, November 17, 2021 - 12:31:45 PM
Long-term archiving on: : Thursday, July 28, 2011 - 2:49:41 AM


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  • HAL Id : hal-00582825, version 2


Pierre-Noël Giraud. A note on Hubbert's hypotheses and techniques. 2011. ⟨hal-00582825v2⟩



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