Developed and developing countries perspectives of the climate policy based on the Copenhagen Accord: A long-term analysis with TIAM-FR
Résumé
Challenges for climate change consideration involve evolution of the world energy system, especially, of the energy and technological mix permitting to satisfy the energy service demands. Different pathways to achieve a low-carbon economy are analyzed in the line of the climate goals expressed in the context of Copenhagen Accord, and according to several assumptions about technologies availability, energy sources potential, etc. The analysis of these possible futures brings information concerning the impact of climate policies in a world and regional view and, their effectiveness to reduce emissions in the line of the global warming objective. It also allows us to discuss the more plausible strategies to reduce GHG according to economic and technological considerations. Stabilize the atmospheric concentrations of GHG at the level that prevents dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system is the ultimate objective of the UNFCCC. Significant GHG emissions mitigation is necessary to reach this long-term collective goal for climate change mitigation requiring limiting global average temperature increases to 2°C above pre-industrial levels. All major developed and developing countries have pledged targets under the Copenhagen Accord but the question is to determine if these promising emissions reductions will be sufficient and if a wider participation will be necessary for the ultimate objective of the UNFCCC. Also, what is interesting and important to analyze is the different impact of these climate policies according to developed and developing regions, in term of level of their contribution in the global effort of GHG emissions reductions, technological potentials and investments to reach their target. Such is the aim of this study.