Skip to Main content Skip to Navigation
Journal articles

Trading Wind Generation From Short-Term Probabilistic Forecasts of Wind Power

Abstract : Due to the fluctuating nature of the wind resource, a wind power producer participating in a liberalized electricity market is subject to penalties related to regulation costs. Accurate forecasts of wind generation are therefore paramount for reducing such penalties and thus maximizing revenue. Despite the fact that increasing accuracy in spot forecasts may reduce penalties, this paper shows that, if such forecasts are accompanied with information on their uncertainty, i.e., in the form of predictive distributions, then this can be the basis for defining advanced strategies for market participation. Such strategies permit to further increase revenues and thus enhance competitiveness of wind generation compared to other forms of dispatchable generation. This paper formulates a general methodology for deriving optimal bidding strategies based on probabilistic forecasts of wind generation, as well as on modeling of the sensitivity a wind power producer may have to regulation costs. The benefits resulting from the application of these strategies are clearly demonstrated on the test case of the participation of a multi-MW wind farm in the Dutch electricity market over a year.
Document type :
Journal articles
Complete list of metadatas

Cited literature [31 references]  Display  Hide  Download

https://hal-mines-paristech.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00617685
Contributor : Magalie Prudon <>
Submitted on : Thursday, October 19, 2017 - 2:59:45 PM
Last modification on : Friday, October 23, 2020 - 4:43:37 PM
Long-term archiving on: : Saturday, January 20, 2018 - 1:46:21 PM

File

pinsonetal_trading_IEEEPowSyst...
Files produced by the author(s)

Identifiers

Citation

Pierre Pinson, Christophe Chevallier, Georges Kariniotakis. Trading Wind Generation From Short-Term Probabilistic Forecasts of Wind Power. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, 2007, 22 (3), pp.1148 - 1156. ⟨10.1109/TPWRS.2007.901117⟩. ⟨hal-00617685⟩

Share

Metrics

Record views

367

Files downloads

736