Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production

Arthur Bossavy (1) , Robin Girard (1) , Georges Kariniotakis (1)

1 CEP/Sophia

The continuous improvement of the accuracy of wind power forecasts is motivated by the increasing wind power integration. Today forecasters are challenged in providing forecasts able to handle extreme situations. This paper presents two methods focusing on forecasting large and sharp variations in power output of a wind farm called ramps. The fi rst one provides probabilistic forecasts using large temporal scales information about ramps. The second method uses ensembles to generate con dence intervals allowing to better estimate the timing of ramps. The two methods are tested and results are given for a real case study.

Mots clés: wind power forecast; ramps; phase errors; forecasts ensemble

Domaines: Sciences de l'ingénieur [physics]; Energétique

Arthur Bossavy, Robin Girard, Georges Kariniotakis. Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production. European Wind Energy Conference and Exhibition 2010, EWEC 2010, Apr 2010, Warsaw, Poland. 9 p. - ISBN 9781617823107. ⟨hal-00765885⟩