Photovoltaic Forecasting: A state of the art

Bella Espinar (1) , José-Luis Aznarte (1) , Robin Girard (1) , Alfred Mbairadjim Moussa (2) , Georges Kariniotakis (1)

1 CEP/Sophia
2 CEP - Centre Énergétique et Procédés

Photovoltaic (PV) energy, together with other renewable energy sources, has been undergoing a rapid development in recent years. Integration of intermittent energy sources as PV or wind power is challenging in terms of power system management in large scale systems as well as in small grids. Indeed, PV energy is a variable resource that is difficult to predict due to meteorological uncertainty. To facilitate the penetration of PV energy, forecasting methods and techniques have been used. Being able to predict the future behavior of a PV plant is very important in order to schedule and manage the alternative supplies and the reserves. In this paper we presented an overview aiming at a classification attending to the different techniques of forecasting methods used for PV or solar prediction. Finally, recent new approaches that take into account the uncertainty of the estimation are introduced. First results of these kind of models are presented.

Domaines: Sciences de l'ingénieur [physics]; Energétique

Bella Espinar, José-Luis Aznarte, Robin Girard, Alfred Mbairadjim Moussa, Georges Kariniotakis. Photovoltaic Forecasting: A state of the art. 5th European PV-Hybrid and Mini-Grid Conference, Apr 2010, Tarragona, Spain. pp.Pages 250-255 - ISBN 978-3-941785-15-1. ⟨hal-00771465⟩