Forecasting Ramps of Wind Power Production at different time scales

Robin Girard (1) , Arthur Bossavy (1) , Georges Kariniotakis (1)

1 CEP/Sophia

Today, there is a growing concern in developping short-term wind power forecasting tools able to provide reliable information about particular, so-called "extreme" situations. One of them is the large and sharp variation of the production a wind farm can experience within a few hours called ramp event. Developping forecast information specially dedicated to ramps is of primary interest both because of the difficulties usual models have to predict them, and the potential risk they represent in the management of a power system. This paper presents two methods to forecast ramps at two different time scale. For the short-term (up to 2 or 3 days ahead), we estimate the uncertainty in the timing of ramps with time-oriented prediction intervals. Such intervals are derived from meteorological ensemble forecasts. Our second approach is dedicated to the very short-term (up to a few hours ahead) and use a propagation modelling of ramps to forecast ramps from the most up to date spatio-temporal information.

Mots clés: wind power forecasts; ramps; phase errors; forecasts ensemble

Domaines: Energétique

Robin Girard, Arthur Bossavy, Georges Kariniotakis. Forecasting Ramps of Wind Power Production at different time scales. Annual EWEA 2011 Conference, Mar 2011, Bruxelles, Belgium. ⟨hal-00772198⟩