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Forecasting Innovation Pathways (FIP) for new and emerging science and technologies

Abstract : "New" and "Emerging Science" and "Technologies" ("NESTs") have tremendous innovation potential. However this must be weighed against enormous uncertainties caused by many unknowns. The authors of this paper offer a framework to analyze NESTs to help ascertain likely innovation pathways. We have devised a 10-step framework based on extensive Future-oriented Technology Analyses ("FTA") experience, enriched by in-depth case analyses. In the paper, we describe our analytical activities in two case studies. The nanobiosensor experience is contrasted with that of deep brain stimulation in relative quantitative and qualitative emphases. We close the paper by reflecting on this systematic FTA framework for emerging science and technologies, for its intended goal, that is to support decision making.
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Contributor : Douglas Robinson Connect in order to contact the contributor
Submitted on : Monday, April 29, 2013 - 6:14:24 PM
Last modification on : Monday, December 14, 2020 - 4:54:32 PM


  • HAL Id : hal-00819005, version 1


Douglas K. R. Robinson. Forecasting Innovation Pathways (FIP) for new and emerging science and technologies. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, 2013, pp.267-285. ⟨hal-00819005⟩



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