Skill forecasting from different wind power ensemble prediction methods - Archive ouverte HAL Accéder directement au contenu
Communication Dans Un Congrès Journal of Physics: Conference Series Année : 2007

Skill forecasting from different wind power ensemble prediction methods

(1) , (1) , (1) , (2)
1
2

Résumé

This paper presents an investigation on alternative approaches to the providing of uncertainty estimates associated to point predictions of wind generation. Focus is given to skill forecasts in the form of prediction risk indices, aiming at giving a comprehensive signal on the expected level of forecast uncertainty. Ensemble predictions of wind generation are used as input. A proposal for the definition of prediction risk indices is given. Such skill forecasts are based on the dispersion of ensemble members for a single prediction horizon, or over a set of successive look-ahead times. It is shown on the test case of a Danish offshore wind farm how prediction risk indices may be related to several levels of forecast uncertainty (and energy imbalances). Wind power ensemble predictions are derived from the transformation of ECMWF and NCEP ensembles of meteorological variables to power, as well as by a lagged average approach alternative. The ability of risk indices calculated from the various types of ensembles forecasts to resolve among situations with different levels of uncertainty is discussed.
Fichier principal
Vignette du fichier
1742-6596_75_1_012046.pdf (174.6 Ko) Télécharger le fichier
Origine : Fichiers éditeurs autorisés sur une archive ouverte
Loading...

Dates et versions

hal-00837982 , version 1 (24-06-2013)

Identifiants

Citer

Pierre Pinson, Henrik A. Nielsen, Henrik Madsen, Georges Kariniotakis. Skill forecasting from different wind power ensemble prediction methods. The Science of Making Torque from Wind, Aug 2007, Kongens Lyngby, Denmark. pp.012046, ⟨10.1088/1742-6596/75/1/012046⟩. ⟨hal-00837982⟩
107 Consultations
116 Téléchargements

Altmetric

Partager

Gmail Facebook Twitter LinkedIn More