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Towards Prospective Life Cycle Assessment: How to Identify Key Parameters Inducing Most Uncertainties in the Future? Application to Photovoltaic Systems Installed in Spain

Abstract : Prospective Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a relevant approach to assess the environmental performance of future energy pathways. Amongst different types of prospective scenarios, cornerstone scenarios meant for complex systems and long-term approaches, are of interest to assess such performance. They rely on different types of long-term projections, such as projections of technological evolutions and of energy resources. In most studies, scenarios are defined with single values for each parameter, and environmental impacts are assessed in a deterministic way. Inherent uncertainties related to these prospective assumptions are not considered and prospective LCA uncertainties are thus not addressed. In this paper we describe a methodology to account for these uncertainties and to identify the parameters inducing most of the uncertainties in the prospective LCA results. We apply this approach to prospective LCAs of photovoltaic-based electricity generation systems.
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Camille Marini, Isabelle Blanc. Towards Prospective Life Cycle Assessment: How to Identify Key Parameters Inducing Most Uncertainties in the Future? Application to Photovoltaic Systems Installed in Spain. 14th International Conference ICCSA 2014, Jun 2014, Guimarães, Portugal. pp.691-706 - ISBN 978-3-319-09149-5, ⟨10.1007/978-3-319-09150-1_51⟩. ⟨hal-01019873⟩

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