Very short term forecasting of the Global Horizontal Irradiance using a spatio-temporal autoregressive model

Romain Dambreville; Philippe Blanc; Jocelyn Chanussot; Didier Boldo

Very short term forecasting of the Global Horizontal Irradiance using a spatio-temporal autoregressive model

Romain Dambreville ^{1, 2} Philippe Blanc ³ Jocelyn Chanussot ¹ Didier Boldo ²

1 GIPSA-SIGMAPHY - SIGMAPHY

GIPSA-DIS - Département Images et Signal

2 EDF R&D - EDF R&D

3 O.I.E. - Centre Observation, Impacts, Énergie

Abstract : The integration of massive solar energy supply in the existing grids requires an accurate forecast of the solar resources to manage the energetic balance. In this context, we propose a new approach to forecast the Global Horizontal Irradiance at ground level from satellite images and ground based measurements. The training of spatio-temporal multidimensional autoregressive models with HelioClim-3 data along with 15-min averaged GHI times series is tested with respect to a ground based station from the BSRN network. Forecast horizons from 15 min to 1 h provided very promising results validated on a one year ground-based pyranometric data set. The performances have been compared to another similar method from the literature by means of relative metrics. The proposed approach paves the way of the use of satellite-based surface solar irradiance (SSI) estimation as an SSI map nowcasting method that enables to capture spatio-temporal correlation for the improvement of a local SSI forecast.

Keywords : Energy Irradiance forecasting Auto-regressive spatio temporal model Satellite images

Type de document :

Article dans une revue

Domaine :

Sciences de l'ingénieur [physics] / Energétique

Liste complète des métadonnées

https://hal-mines-paristech.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01086935
Contributeur : Magalie Prudon <>
Soumis le : mardi 25 novembre 2014 - 11:22:41
Dernière modification le : lundi 12 novembre 2018 - 11:04:12

Very short term forecasting of the Global Horizontal Irradiance using a spatio-temporal autoregressive model

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Very short term forecasting of the Global Horizontal Irradiance using a spatio-temporal autoregressive model

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