Toward the future climate regime: A regional long term perspective of political targets and technological options
Résumé
The aim of the next negotiations between Parties until the Twenty-first Conference of Parties (COP 21) which will be held in Paris in 2015 is to reach an international agreement involving as many countries as possible, in order to reduce CO2 emissions sufficiently and stay in line with the ultimate 2°C objective of the UNFCCC. A strong climate policy in line with this 2°C objective requires a global contribution, whether countries are industrialized or developing, or especially fast developing or emerging. However, debates highlights the fact that it is primarily up to industrialized countries to keep their promise of helping countries develop a record of adapting to the impacts of climate change, and nothing is certain as regards the possible level of CO2 emission reduction that developing countries will be able to attain or, even, accept to reduce. In terms of cost, a larger contribution from developing countries is less expensive than strong emission mitigation in industrialized countries, as expressed by the decision to allow flexible mechanisms under the Kyoto Protocol (i.e. develop GHG emissions mitigation projects where the carbon abatement cost can be lower). But this is not sufficient. Could we reach an ambitious, and necessary, climate target without the participation of developing countries? In the same manner, a key feature of the Copenhagen agreement and of the future accord is the participation of the United States of America and non-Annex I countries, especially China, as they represent a large share of global CO2 emissions. China and the USA are the largest global emitters of CO2 and, as concerning developing countries, without their participation in a climate agreement the latter cannot really ensure achieving stabilized CO2 concentration and global temperatures. Various climate scenarios are implemented in the bottom-up optimization model TIAM-FR and analyzed to explore the effects of a possible international coordination on main environmental and economic indicators. The impacts of different commitment levels under post-Copenhagen and/or global long-term climate policies can thereby be discussed and provide some understanding on the stakes and issues. Particularly, do developing countries have the capacity to implement policies to reduce emissions given that their priority is development and energy supply? What is expected from industrialized countries like Europe? What are the technological possibilities considering the state of development of their energy systems and the evolution of their needs? The main focus is, in a first part, on the ambition of the various climate policies regarding CO2 emissions at global and regional level. In a second part, we discuss the impact of international climate change strategies to the energy system, and particularly on the electricity generation In this context, discussions investigate long-term solutions, and particularly the development of CCS technologies or renewables, in response to a constraint that influences the energy mix.
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