Prospective modeling for Degrowth: Investigating macroeconomic scenarios for France

François Briens (1) , Nadia Maïzi (1)

1 CMA - Centre de Mathématiques Appliquées

An important theorization effort has been made in recent years around Degrowth. Yet current literature still falls a bit short of providing detailed investigations of possible macro-socioeconomic outcomes that may result from taking in such paths. Using a dynamic simulation model of the French monetary economy, we explore different medium-term scenarios based on combinations of various proposals and strategies issued from the Degrowth movement (cf. Barcelona “bullet points”). We investigate the possible macro-socioeconomic and environmental impacts of such proposals, in particular in terms of employment, poverty, public budget and public debt, energy consumption and GHG emissions. Carrying out sensitivity analysis on different parameters allows us to identify elements that may play a critical role in the transition, and outline potential obstacles and conditions for “success”. Limitations of this applied modeling approach when it comes to dealing with complex socio-economic issues such as Degrowth are discussed.

Mots clés: Macroeconomic modeling; Degrowth scenarios; Prospective

Domaines: Planification énergétique; Prospective long-terme

François Briens, Nadia Maïzi. Prospective modeling for Degrowth: Investigating macroeconomic scenarios for France. 4th International Degrowth-Conference, Sep 2014, Leipzig, Germany. ⟨hal-01103616⟩