A cost analysis of the Copenhagen emission reduction pledges

Olivia Ricci (1) , Sandrine Selosse (1)

1 CMA - Centre de Mathématiques Appliquées

As part of the Copenhagen Accord, countries have submitted emissions reduction pledges for 2020. Using a long term optimization model (TIAM-FR), we evaluate the implications of these submissions for emission reductions, carbon prices and total cost of the energy system. Our study finds that the pledges are not sufficient to meet the global recommended 2-2.4°C objective. Furthermore, reaching the overall 2°-2.4C objective would involve significant costs for China and India that explains the difficulty of international negotiations.

Mots clés: Global warming; Copenhagen Accord; long term optimization model; abatement cost

Domaines: Planification énergétique; Prospective long-terme

Olivia Ricci, Sandrine Selosse. A cost analysis of the Copenhagen emission reduction pledges. [Research Report] Working Paper 2013-01-08, Chaire Modélisation prospective au service du développement durable. 2013, pp.12 - Les Cahiers de la Chaire. ⟨hal-01135607⟩