The " Weather Intelligence for Renewable Energies " Benchmarking Exercise on Short-Term Forecasting of Wind and Solar Power Generation

Simone Sperati (1) , Stefano Alessandrini (2) , Pierre Pinson (3) , Georges Kariniotakis (4)

1 Ricerca sul Sistema Energetico- RSE
2 NCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder]
3 Risø DTU - Risø National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy
4 PERSEE - Centre Procédés, Énergies Renouvelables, Systèmes Énergétiques

A benchmarking exercise was organized within the framework of the European Action Weather Intelligence for Renewable Energies (" WIRE ") with the purpose of evaluating the performance of state of the art models for short-term renewable energy forecasting. The exercise consisted in forecasting the power output of two wind farms and two photovoltaic power plants, in order to compare the merits of forecasts based on different modeling approaches and input data. It was thus possible to obtain a better knowledge of the state of the art in both wind and solar power forecasting, with an overview and comparison of the principal and the novel approaches that are used today in the field, and to assess the evolution of forecast performance with respect to previous benchmarking exercises. The outcome of this exercise consisted then in proposing new challenges in the renewable power forecasting field and identifying the main areas for improving accuracy in the future.

Mots clés: short-term energy forecasting; wind power; solar power; renewable energies; probabilistic forecasting; meteorological modeling; benchmarking comparison

Domaines: Sciences de l'ingénieur [physics]; Energétique; Sciences de l'environnement

Simone Sperati, Stefano Alessandrini, Pierre Pinson, Georges Kariniotakis. The " Weather Intelligence for Renewable Energies " Benchmarking Exercise on Short-Term Forecasting of Wind and Solar Power Generation. Energies, 2015, 8 (9), pp.9594-9619. ⟨10.3390/en8099594⟩. ⟨hal-01199212⟩