Describing and predicting of the vegetation development of Corsica due to expected climate change and its impact on forest fire risk evolution

Abstract : Among the consequences pointed out by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), it is assumed that xeric and thermophilic ecosystems, which are mostly involved in forest fires, could colonize areas currently less or not exposed to forest fire risk. The aim of our study is to assess the spatial distribution of xeric and thermophilic botanical taxa in Corsica for the end of the 21st Century, according to the climatic scenario named RCP 6 which is considered as one of the most probable reference scenario. The results of our study show a probable increase of forest fire risk due to the colonization of xeric and thermophilic ecosystems in more areas than we can observe today.