Impacts of fossil fuel extraction costs and carbon pricing on energy efficiency policies
Résumé
Energy efficiency is llikely to remain a valuable support for meeting climate challenges because it involves using less primary energy to produce the same final service. However, efficient solutions adapted to industrial and construction stakeholders are being put into question by the recent drop in crude oil prices and the development of non-conventional resources, which reduce the incentive to save energy. These strategies are also very sensitive to carbon pricing, which can stimulate or weaken incentives created by crude oil prices.
We explore energy efficiency potential in relation to different fossil fuel extraction cost schemes crossed with a carbon pricing scenario built using various global carbon taxes. This sensitivity analysis relies on prospective studies conducted with the technical-and-economic, bottom-up optimization model TIAM-FR (TIMES Integrated Assessment Model developed at the Center for Applied Mathematics MINES ParisTech), where energy efficiency is endogenized: thus, the system reaches the optimal efficiency level according to cost constraints. This representation has been implemented and calibrated for the industrial, residential and tertiary sectors to improve understanding of the balance between energy efficiency potential when considering fossil fuel extraction costs and carbon pricing patterns.