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Communication Dans Un Congrès Année : 2016

On the way to a decarbonized world: an analysis of the Paris Climate Agreement with TIAM-FR

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Sandrine Selosse
Seungwoo Kang
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Nadia Maïzi

Résumé

After a large awareness and decades of negotiations, a historic climate agreement was adopted by consensus by all 195 parties at the UNFCCC, the December 12, 2015, in order to provide an answer to this climate issue. This agreement marks a turning point towards a new world, a decarbonized world. At least, that is its ambition. Using a long-term prospective approach, and more precisely the bottom-up optimization model TIAM-FR, we investigate different GHG mitigation trajectories in line with 1) commitments occurring according to the Paris Climate Agreement, 2) an ambitious ultimate and global target by 2050 in line with the 2°C objective and the IPCC recommendations (AR4 and AR5), and 3) regional assumptions by 2050 according to the optimistic/pessimistic revisions of long-term commitments, including a carbon price. The latter is considered in the light of Paragraph 137 of the Paris agreement that recognizes the importance of providing incentives to emission reduction activities, in particular with regard to tools such as national policies and carbon pricing. We analyze a combination of these scenarios to discuss decarbonized pathway and the technological solutions to climate issues. Our analysis of the scenario results then focuses on the effects on the level of GHG emissions and the carbon abatement costs associated with the different GHG reduction targets for regions (developed, fast developing or developing countries) with national focus.
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Dates et versions

hal-01445711 , version 1 (25-01-2017)

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  • HAL Id : hal-01445711 , version 1

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Sandrine Selosse, Seungwoo Kang, Nadia Maïzi. On the way to a decarbonized world: an analysis of the Paris Climate Agreement with TIAM-FR. The 35th Edition of the International Energy Workshop (IEW), University College of Cork, Jun 2016, Cork Ireland. ⟨hal-01445711⟩
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