On the way to a decarbonized world: an analysis of the Paris Climate Agreement with TIAM-FR
Résumé
After a large awareness and decades of negotiations, a historic climate agreement was adopted by consensus by all 195 parties at the UNFCCC, the December 12, 2015, in order to provide an answer to this climate issue. This agreement marks a turning point towards a new world, a decarbonized world. At least, that is its ambition. Using a long-term prospective approach, and more precisely the bottom-up optimization model TIAM-FR, we investigate different GHG mitigation trajectories in line with 1) commitments occurring according to the Paris Climate Agreement, 2) an ambitious ultimate and global target by 2050 in line with the 2°C objective and the IPCC recommendations (AR4 and AR5), and 3) regional assumptions by 2050 according to the optimistic/pessimistic revisions of long-term commitments, including a carbon price. The latter is considered in the light of Paragraph 137 of the Paris agreement that recognizes the importance of providing incentives to emission reduction activities, in particular with regard to tools such as national policies and carbon pricing. We analyze a combination of these scenarios to discuss decarbonized pathway and the technological solutions to climate issues. Our analysis of the scenario results then focuses on the effects on the level of GHG emissions and the carbon abatement costs associated with the different GHG reduction targets for regions (developed, fast developing or developing countries) with national focus.