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Etude de l'influence des occupants sur la performance énergétique des logements par le biais d'une modélisation stochastique globale

Abstract : A dwelling occupancy model is developed by integrating recent advances of the literature in the domain of stochastic modeling of occupancy, completed by statistical data from the field of social sciences, and measurement campaigns. Instead of one simulation with the conventional scenarios leading to a unique energy consumption value, a series of simulations is conducted and yields a statistical distribution. For each simulation, households are generated through a probabilistic procedure according to the dwellings' properties (house or apartment, number of rooms, location) and each occupant was defined by a set of characteristics (age, sex, employment status, etc.). These characteristics condition households' electrical appliances ownership and occupants' activities scenarios, generated through a stochastic model calibrated on data from a French Time Use Survey. The activities scenarios are used to locate the occupants inside the house, and simulate the use of electrical appliances and lighting through a precise bottom-up model. Windows openings are modeled depending on presence, indoor and outdoor conditions. The method was applied to a collective housing building located in Lyon (France). Assuming unchanged temperature setpoint, the mathematical expectation of the annual heating needs is 44 kWh/m 2 with a 4 kWh/m 2 standard deviation. In the process of energy performance guarantee, a value of 52 kWh/m 2 can be selected with a 5 % risk.
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Submitted on : Wednesday, February 8, 2017 - 10:48:39 AM
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Eric Vorger, Patrick Schalbart, Bruno Peuportier. Etude de l'influence des occupants sur la performance énergétique des logements par le biais d'une modélisation stochastique globale. Conférence Francophone de l'International Building Performance Simulation Association (IBPSA 2014), May 2014, Arras, France. ⟨hal-01461444⟩

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