Short-Term Spatio-Temporal Forecasting of Photovoltaic Power Production

Xwégnon Ghislain Agoua (1) , Robin Girard (1) , Georges Kariniotakis (1)

1 PERSEE - Centre Procédés, Énergies Renouvelables, Systèmes Énergétiques

In recent years, the penetration of photovoltaic (PV) generation in the energy mix of several countries has significantly increased thanks to policies favoring development of renewables and also to the significant cost reduction of this specific technology. The PV power production process is characterized by significant variability, as it depends on meteorological conditions, which brings new challenges to power system operators. To address these challenges it is important to be able to observe and anticipate production levels. Accurate forecasting of the power output of PV plants is recognized today as a prerequisite for large-scale PV penetration on the grid. In this paper, we propose a statistical method to address the problem of stationarity of PV production data, and develop a model to forecast PV plant power output in the very short term (0-6 hours). The proposed model uses distributed power plants as sensors and exploits their spatio-temporal dependencies to improve forecasts. The computational requirements of the method are low, making it appropriate for large-scale application and easy to use when on-line updating of the production data is possible. The improvement of the normalized root mean square error (nRMSE) can reach 20% or more in comparison with state-of-the-art forecasting techniques

Mots clés: Autoregressive processes; forecasting; photovoltaic systems; smart grids; spatial correlation; stationarity; time series

Domaines: Energétique

Xwégnon Ghislain Agoua, Robin Girard, Georges Kariniotakis. Short-Term Spatio-Temporal Forecasting of Photovoltaic Power Production. IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy , 2018, 9 (2), pp. 538 - 546. ⟨10.1109/TSTE.2017.2747765⟩. ⟨hal-01581946⟩