Long-term energy modeling for a decarbonized world: An assessment of the Paris agreement with an optimization bottom-up model
Résumé
A historic international climate agreement was adopted by all 195 parties at the UNFCCC on December 2015, to respond to climate issue. The 21st Conference of Parties (COP 21) then marked a decisive stage in the transition to a decarbonized world, with countries calling for a more ambitious long-term goal. Using a long-term prospective approach, and more precisely the bottom-up optimization model TIAM-FR, we investigate different decarbonization pathways of the world energy system to reach the 2°C UNFCCC objective on the one hand, and assess the Paris Agreement with the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) on the other hand. Our analysis then focuses on the effects of the Paris Agreement on the level of GHG emissions and the corresponding technological solutions in global and regional perspectives (developed, fast developing or developing countries). While the global contribution of all countries appears essential to reach the ultimate goal of the Paris Accord, a fair level of contribution from developing countries has to be determined; we then discuss the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities. Climate constraints tending toward a 2°C objective involving significant decarbonization of the power system with considerable investments in renewable energies as well as in carbon capture and storage technologies, notably with bioenergy, we discuss the role of this option and of the biomass potential.
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