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The decarbonized pathways of post-Paris climate policy

Abstract : The historic climate agreement adopted by all countries in December 2015 marks a turning point towards a decarbonized world. Applying a long-term prospective approach, and more precisely the bottom-up optimization model TIAM-FR, we investigate different greenhouse gas emissions mitigation trajectories to discuss these pathways and the corresponding technological solutions in global and regional perspectives. The contribution to GHG mitigation varies according to regions' development; as the technological choices regarding climate constraints and the evolution of the energy system. Climate constraints tending toward a 2°C objective involve significant decarbonization of the power system with considerable investments in renewable energies in the lower and higher constraints, as well as in carbon capture and storage technologies (CCS), notably bio-energy and CCS (BECCS). CCS technologies start to be installed when climate constraints are high (2°C) but not in scenarios expressing national pledges. It is interesting to note that in case of a ban on BECCS, the latter is compensated not by a higher development of fossil CCS technologies, but by an increase in renewable energies.
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Sandrine Selosse, Nadia Maïzi. The decarbonized pathways of post-Paris climate policy. 66th annual Congress of the French Economic Association (AFSE), AFSE - Association Française de Science Economique, Jun 2017, Nice, France. ⟨hal-01735072⟩

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