Investigating long-term lifestyle changes: A methodological proposal based on a statistical model

Abstract : Lifestyles are both a broad and complex object of thought and a key determinant of the sustainability of our societies. A qualitative analysis of future lifestyles offers great freedom to imagine dramatic societal changes and explore paradigm shifts. Performing a quantitative analysis is less straightforward and more conceptually questionable. In this paper we introduce a statistical model that we developed for France to specifically address long‐term lifestyle changes and their consequences for the consumption of goods and services, housing demand and demand for mobility, which are key determinants of resource use and emissions. We use national social surveys to identify significant patterns. The model enables us to assess explorative scenarios if lifestyle changes are not too disruptive. In providing an explicit representation of lifestyles at a macroscopic level, it can inform us of the interrelated desirability and sustainability debate.