Metabolism and difference iterative forecasting model based on long-range dependent and grey for gearbox reliability

He Liu , Wanqing Song , Yuhui Niu , Enrico Zio (1)

1 CRC - Centre de recherche sur les Risques et les Crises

The reliability prediction of gearbox is a complex and challenging topic. The purpose of this research is to propose a hybrid difference iterative forecasting model to forecast reliability of the gearbox. On this score, a hybrid model based on the fractional Lévy stable motion (fLsm), the Grey Model (GM) and the metabolism method is proposed. To solve the problem of insensitivity to weak faults inside the gearbox, we use feature extraction method to reveal the gearbox degradation. Then, the least square theory is used to separate the degradation sequence in the gearbox into a deterministic term with monotonicity and a stochastic term with Long-Range Dependence (LRD). Next, the fLsm with LRD and non-Gaussian is used to forecast the stochastic term, the deterministic term is simulated by the GM, and the hybrid forecasting model is used to modify the prediction results. The metabolism method is used to update the degradation sequence and to forecast longer-term trend. Finally, a case demonstrated that superiority and generality of the hybrid forecasting model.

Mots clés: Difference iterative form; Fractional Lévy stable motion; Gear degradation; Grey model; Metabolism method.

Domaines: Physique [physics]

He Liu, Wanqing Song, Yuhui Niu, Enrico Zio. Metabolism and difference iterative forecasting model based on long-range dependent and grey for gearbox reliability. ISA Transactions, 2021, 153, pp.107471. ⟨10.1016/j.isatra.2021.05.002⟩. ⟨hal-03481223⟩