A Modeling and Analysis Framework for Integrated Energy Systems Exposed to Climate Change-Induced NaTech Accidental Scenarios

Francesco Di Maio (1) , Pietro Tonicello (1) , Enrico Zio (2, 1)

1 Dipartimento di Energia [Milano]
2 CRC - Centre de recherche sur les Risques et les Crises

This paper proposes a novel framework for the analysis of integrated energy systems (IESs) exposed to both stochastic failures and “shock” climate-induced failures, such as those characterizing NaTech accidental scenarios. With such a framework, standard centralized systems (CS), IES with distributed generation (IES-DG) and IES with bidirectional energy conversion (IES+P2G) enabled by power-to-gas (P2G) facilities can be analyzed. The framework embeds the model of each single production plant in an integrated power-flow model and then couples it with a stochastic failures model and a climate-induced failure model, which simulates the occurrence of extreme weather events (e.g., flooding) driven by climate change. To illustrate how to operationalize the analysis in practice, a case study of a realistic IES has been considered that comprises two combined cycle gas turbine plants (CCGT), a nuclear power plant (NPP), two wind farms (WF), a solar photovoltaicS (PV) field and a power-to-gas station (P2G). Results suggest that the IESs are resilient to climate-induced failures.

Mots clés: integrated energy systems (IES); NaTech scenarios; climate change; Monte Carlo simulation; CVaR; system average interruption frequency index (SAIFI); annual failure probability (AFP); loss exceedance probability (LEP)

Domaines: Sciences de l'ingénieur [physics]; Gestion des risques et des crises; Energétique

Francesco Di Maio, Pietro Tonicello, Enrico Zio. A Modeling and Analysis Framework for Integrated Energy Systems Exposed to Climate Change-Induced NaTech Accidental Scenarios. Sustainability, 2022, 14 (2), pp.786. ⟨10.3390/su14020786⟩. ⟨hal-03702714⟩