Analysing spatio-temporal patterns of wind power production for off shore wind power scenario generation
Résumé
Nowadays, European countries like Germany, Spain and Denmark already have a significant share of wind generation in their electricity generation mix. In parallel, the large-scale integration of wind power is also taking place at a rapid pace in other European countries. Due to the variable nature of the wind resource, this large-scale integration of wind power causes several difficulties in the operation and management of a power system. Forecasts and understanding of wind conditions and related power generation from a few hours to a few days ahead in the whole considered area are paramount for various management tasks related to the integration of wind generation in power systems When going offshore, dimensioning the network requires a good understanding of spatio-temporal propagation of wind power production and of wind power forecast errors. In particular, the number of wind farms installed in a 10kmx10km area in Denmark becomes significant and it is of interest to understand the main characteristics of these propagations below the synoptic scale (i.e. at the 15 minutes resolution) conditionally to parameters describing the general meteorological situation. In this work, we present a detailed analysis of the spatio-temporal characteristic of wind power production and forecast errors in Denmark using more than 200 wind farms located in DK1 for a period of 4 years with a 15 minutes resolution. In particular we derive and discuss the spatial and temporal scales that are involved and describe the propagations conditionally to wind speed and direction at different model levels. A direct product of this type of spatio-temporal characterisation is spatio-temporal scenario of wind power generation and forecast errors. When going offshore, these scenario can help dimensioning and designing the network. However, the spatio-temporal characterisation obtained on flat onshore land requires calibration before it can be used for offshore simulations. In the second part of this work, we present a statistical methodology to use onshore spatio-temporal characterization and offshore meteorological analysis of a meteorological model to produce calibrated spatio-temporal scenario of wind power production. We also show how to calibrate the temporal variability of the generated spatio-temporal scenario with respect to an additional offshore wind farm and we apply this methodology with Fino met mast and using a power curve. The first part of the work has been performed in the framework of the FP7 EU project Safewind